Our brain is a master of connecting an effect to a cause.
If you roll dice hard and you get big numbers, you begin to assume that a hard roll makes a big number.
If you always pick a winning stock while wearing a pair of blue jeans, you begin to associate a pair of blue jeans with increased luck.
Many impetuous decisions are ascribable to post hoc fallacy.
When something seems to fall into pieces, challenge your own belief.