Philosophy November 19, 2022

Predicting the Unpredictable

Predicting the Unpredictable

It is fascinating how we like to predict the future when we have no capability to do so.

We see vaticination everywhere: five-year financial growth projection, unemployment rate, commodity price. We overestimate our capability to predict when we have none. But, it is easy to get away with it. Whenever we get it right, we ascribe it to our insights. Whenever we get it wrong, we blame the unforeseen situation.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb put it beautifully in his book, Black Swan. Who would have anticipated the advent of technology that has grossly voided all past forecasts?

Stop trying to foresee when we can’t see the unforeseen.

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